martes, agosto 26, 2008

La culpa es del mensajero

Para cuaquier persona que opera en el mundo real (no en la nube de pedos de la academia o la militancia política), la respuesta a la pregunta: ¿Cómo anda el paìs en los últimos meses? es, abrumadoramente, para el tujes (con más o menos aditamentos técnicos y con más o menos datos que avalan tal opinión). Y la respuesta general a la pregunta: ¿Cómo ves la perspectiva de corto plazo para invertir en el país?, el clamor es: muy pero muy oscura.

Pues bien, el Banco Central de España, a través de un informe llamado "MAPA DE EXPOSICIÓN INTERNACIONAL DE LA ECONOMÍA ESPAÑOLA", de principios de este mes, nos informa que la economìa española tiene cierta dependencia de lo que suceda en la economìa Argentina. (de las más altas fuera de los países desarrollados). Habla de interdependencia comercial, financiera, bancaria. Hasta ahí, todo bien. Pero los buenos de Vilarrubia y García-Posada no tuvieron mejor idea que intentar medir el riesgo que corre España por esa interdependencia. Evaluaron los riesgos de cada paìs usando ratings crediticios, indicadores de riesgo soberano, polìtico, cambiario, bancario, de estructura económica etc y el ranking de Doing Business Around the World. Le aplicaron esa vara, es importante decirlo, A TODOS los países (para los que ven una conspiración anti Argentina en todo)

¿Y como nos dió? Obviamente, para el orto. Cualquier persona más o menos activa en la economía coincidiría bastante con esa conclusión, por similares o distintas razones.

Ahora bien, algún salame le sopló el dato a Cris. ¿Y cómo reaccionó Cris? Con la marca de fuego de los mediocres: "Después de las cosas que han pasado en España, deberían dedicarse a pronosticar más sobre las cosas de ellos que las de los demás", con la profundidad analìtica de una ameba y la estatura polìtica de un pingûino....

y siguiò: "Vamos a seguir trabajando para profundizar este modelo que tantas satisfacciones le ha dado, no a un sector, sino fundamentalmente a todos los argentinos, que han logrado recuperar calidad de vida a través del trabajo y del salario"...me pregunto si esta señora toma medicamentos una vez vencidos.....

Y el remate: "Es muy importante para una sociedad y para el desarrollo de cualquier modelo político-económico, que los hombres que deciden las inversiones, que generan riqueza a través del aporte de capital sumando trabajo, tengan confianza y amor por lo que hacen", demostrando que tiene sentimiento de culpa por alabar solamente al capital y que confunde amor y confianza por lo que cada uno hace con confianza en las decisiones de un gobierno desnortado

9 comentarios:

Coki dijo...

Te admiro por la energía para analizar punto a punto lo que dicen los Kirchner.

Lo que más me llamó la atención fue la referencia a la confianza. Sería bueno que se enterara de que la confianza es brindada por un país, no recibida.
Tan dificil es entender algo asi de sencillo?

Coki

Gabrielito dijo...

JAJAJAJAJA,

si cuando lo vi no podía creer lo que había dicho.

Increible.

Manitoban dijo...

Clap, clap, clap... ¡Grande Postino!
Cuánta mediocridad debe haber en Balcarce 50 que no existe un funcionario de peso que se siente con Cristina Fernández y le diga: "Presi, nos va como el orto y tenemos que hacer algo". O-ere-Te-O, "Orto"... El último artículo de The Economist (mucho más imparcial que el WSJ) es clarito al respecto: este año zafan, el año que viene... ay mamita.

il postino dijo...

Si, lo increìble es que no hay absolutamente nadie, pero NADIE en las empresas que no piense eso. Y como las expectativas influyen mucho en la realidad, este pronóstico tiene fuertes chances de hacerse realidad....

Lo que demuestra otra caracterìsitca de este gobierno: vive en un tupper, y dedica tiempo a escuchar a cuatro de copas irrelevantes como los de Carta Abierta (que se los llama intelectuales por no llamarlos inútiles para crear valor, supongo) en lugar de intentar escuchar que pasa en el mundo real....asì nos va

Manitoban dijo...

Esto salió en La Nación Online:

Los precios en los supermercados en julio bajaron 0,3 por ciento respecto de junio, según informó hoy el Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (Indec).

En tanto si se compara con los niveles de precio de julio de 2007 hubo un alza de apenas 2,8 por ciento.

O sea: Mientras en Estados Unidos la inflación llega al 4% y China anda por el 7%, Argentina solamente tiene una inflación del 3%...

Se van a pegar un palo...

Anónimo dijo...

Manitoban, seguramente habrá algún intelectual de Carta Abierta, como Coco Silly, que le debe decir a la Presidenta: "Presi, shtamo mal, vamo como el orto, Hache-O-ere-te-O, orto...".
Y así andamos...
Me parece que el problema principal son los intérpretes.
Saludos,
Nacho

ayjblog dijo...

lei recien The Economist, la verdad, no lo encontre, bah, no encontre nada en la edicion impresa
sere yo?

Manitoban dijo...

Argentina
Clouds gather again over the Pampas

Aug 21st 2008 | BUENOS AIRES
From The Economist print edition
After six years of rapid growth, Argentina’s economy is at a familiar turning-point, in which the president’s refusal to change course threatens to make it poorer

Illustration by Claudio Munoz

EVER since Argentina began its recovery in mid-2002 from a devastating financial collapse, it has seemed to defy economic gravity. The country’s left-wing government, first led by Néstor Kirchner and then this year by his wife, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, has violated many standard economic prescriptions: it has shunned the IMF and shafted private bondholders; kicked out foreign companies and set up new state-owned ones; imposed price controls; and even doctored the inflation figure. Yet over the past six years, Argentina’s economy has grown at an annual average rate of 8.3%—faster than any other big economy except China.

At last a turning point seems to have been reached. A slowdown, long predicted by the Kirchners’ opponents, is at hand. When compared with the same period last year, retail sales (measured by volume) are down 10% to 15%. On Calle Florida, Buenos Aires’s main shopping street, almost every block has at least one vacant shopfront. Employment in the private sector is still growing, but at half last year’s rate, according to Nicolás Bridger of Prefinex, a consultancy. Meanwhile, inflation has taken off. Almost nobody believes the official index, which shows prices having increased by 9% over the 12 months to July. Credible unofficial estimates put the figure at 25%. By underestimating inflation, the official figures may also overstate economic growth.
Click here to find out more!

Throw in the recent fall of up to a quarter in world prices for the country’s farm commodities, and the markets have suddenly become rattled. After years in which it bought dollars to stop the peso from appreciating, the Central Bank has been selling them to boost the currency. On August 11th Standard & Poor’s, a ratings agency, downgraded Argentina’s credit rating. The risk premium on Argentine public debt has soared to 670 basis points above the interest rate paid by American Treasury bonds. The equivalent figure for Brazilian debt is just 240 basis points.

Fears of another economic collapse of the kind that Argentina has made its speciality are, in fact, overblown. Most forecasters expect the economy to carry on growing, but at a more moderate rate of 4-5% in 2009. “Argentina’s hyper-growth period is over,” says Miguel Bein, an economic consultant. The country still enjoys budget and trade surpluses. But by common consent, maintaining these surpluses and engineering a soft landing requires policy changes. And therein lies the doubt.

Two things have underpinned the growth spurt. The first was the depth of the preceding collapse. In 2001-02 the economy shrank by 15%, unemployment climbed to 21% and poverty engulfed 56% of Argentines. The government defaulted on debts of $80 billion and devalued the peso, which sank to less than a third of its previous value. When growth resumed, idle plant and workers could easily be brought back into action. The second boost was the surge in world commodity prices, and thus in the value of Argentina’s exports (and the taxes on them).

The government supercharged growth, stimulating demand with wage increases, price controls, an undervalued peso and public works. This formula worked for much longer than the critics expected. But it has generated big distortions. Inflation has cut into the real value of wages and profits, pushing up poverty again.

The government’s energy and farming policies have caused particular problems. It kept energy tariffs frozen at their 2002 level, deterring investment and prompting blackouts last year. Winter has been milder this year, and tariffs have recently risen. But uncertainty about energy supply is another discouragement to investors.

The Kirchners have relied on taxing farm exports to fund public spending. This originally had some justification, since farmers benefited hugely from the cheap peso. But Ms Fernández pushed the policy too far, raising farm taxes in March. After months of protests by farmers, Congress voted down the tax increase. The conflict paralysed parts of the economy, and undermined confidence.

The economy’s slowdown puts Ms Fernández in an awkward financial position. Energy and transport subsidies now cost 3.5% of GDP, according to Ecolatina, a consultancy. And Ms Fernández wants to spend money on renationalising an airline and on building a high-speed train. To boost its primary budget surplus (excluding interest payments), the government now includes in its accounts revenue from the Central Bank and the pension system. It has also held back payments to provincial governments. But the president, who has become deeply unpopular, has lost the confidence of much of her Peronist party, making that harder.

At 55% of GDP, Argentina’s public debt is still large. But the cost of servicing it has been low, partly because of the tough restructuring Mr Kirchner imposed on bondholders. Even so, to service its debts, the government needs to find an extra $2.5 billion or so next year. It cannot tap the international capital markets, because it has still not settled with some bondholders nor its sovereign creditors in the Paris Club. Instead, it is relying on Hugo Chávez. This month Venezuela’s president bought another $1 billion in Argentine bonds (taking his total purchases to $7 billion). The latest bonds pay interest of 15%—the same rate agreed by Domingo Cavallo, a former finance minister, in a notorious bond swap in 2001 on the eve of the collapse.

This time the government has plenty of policy tools with which to stabilise the economy. Start with energy, for which Argentines still pay a third less than their neighbours. Further hikes in energy tariffs would improve the public finances, and attract investment. Settling with the Paris Club and the bondholders would enable Argentina to secure financing from the markets on relatively favourable terms. Many economists reckon that these measures would be enough to keep the country growing at a still-healthy annual rate of 4% or so for several years.

“These problems should not be difficult to solve,” says Javier González Fraga, a former Central Bank governor. “But no one seems to want to do so yet.” By delaying the necessary adjustments, the government has already made them more painful. And the Kirchners, who govern as a couple, have made their defiance of the IMF, the Paris Club and the bondholders a point of pride. Unless they now swallow that pride, it will be followed by a fall.

Anónimo dijo...
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